Trump's 15% Global Tariff Creates 'Unholy Mess' for UK and EU Importers

On February 23, 2026, global markets opened sharply lower as businesses and governments scrambled to understand the implications of President Trump's decision to raise his Section 122 temporary import surcharge from 10% to 15%. The move, announced just one day after the initial 10% rate was set, came in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court's landmark ruling striking down IEEPA-based tariffs as unconstitutional. The FTSE 100 fell at the open, Germany's DAX dropped 0.6%, and France's CAC 40 slid 0.35%, while gold hit a three-week high as investors sought safety.

The central source of confusion is whether the new 15% blanket tariff overrides the bilateral trade deals the U.S. has already negotiated with over 20 countries, including the UK, the EU, Japan, and Switzerland. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CBS on Sunday that existing deals would be honored — 'We want them to understand these deals are going to be good deals. We're going to stand by them.' — but the legal mechanism of Section 122 appears to apply universally, creating what analysts at Interactive Investor called 'an unholy mess' of contradictory signals.

The UK faces particular uncertainty. Andy Haldane, the new president of the British Chambers of Commerce, told the BBC that he believed the 15% tariff would apply to UK goods from February 24 unless the government receives explicit confirmation otherwise. The UK's current negotiated rate with the U.S. is 10%. If the Section 122 rate supersedes this, UK exporters face an immediate 50% increase in the tariff barrier overnight. Dr Jonathan Owens of the University of Salford warned that the impact would ripple through UK supply chains: 'Higher U.S. import costs would likely suppress demand for UK goods, particularly in strategically vital sectors such as automotive manufacturing, aerospace, machinery, and pharmaceuticals.'

The European Union responded forcefully, stating 'A deal is a deal' and calling on the U.S. to honor the July 2025 trade agreement negotiated at Trump's Scottish golf course. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed this, saying he expected the U.S. to 'follow the Supreme Court decision with clear policies.' The German confederation of businesses (BDI) called for urgent dialogue, while the European Parliament moved to pause ratification of the EU-U.S. trade deal pending clarity. The EU's trade spokesman Olof Gill said 'additional clarity is required' and that 'full clarity on what these new developments mean for the EU-US trade relationship is the absolute minimum required.'

The legal basis for the new tariffs is itself contested. Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose surcharges of up to 15% for 150 days to address 'large and serious balance-of-payments deficits.' However, economists and former IMF officials have questioned whether the U.S. genuinely has a balance-of-payments problem. Gita Gopinath, former first deputy managing director of the IMF, stated publicly that 'the US does not have a fundamental international payments problem,' noting that as long as demand for U.S. debt and equities remains strong, the statutory condition is not met. Berenberg economist Atakan Bakiskan raised the more fundamental question: 'Isn't the balance of payments always equal to zero as an accounting identity under a flexible exchange rate regime?'

For importers, the practical implications are severe and immediate. The 15% Section 122 surcharge stacks on top of existing duties — meaning products already subject to Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods could face combined rates exceeding 50%. Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor warned that high U.S. tariffs 'appear to be here to stay' and that the full impact would take 'many years' to be felt. TS Lombard analyst Grace Fan noted that Trump faces an 'electoral-fiscal-trade trilemma' ahead of midterm elections, suggesting further tariff reshuffling is likely as the administration balances voter sentiment, bond market stability, and trade revenue.

The situation underscores why continuous tariff monitoring has become essential for any business involved in international trade. With rates changing overnight, bilateral deals in flux, and legal challenges creating additional uncertainty, importers who rely on periodic manual checks of tariff schedules are exposed to significant financial risk. Companies need real-time visibility into rate changes across all jurisdictions — US, UK, and EU — and the ability to rapidly assess the impact on their product catalogs. The businesses best positioned to navigate this volatility are those with automated classification and monitoring systems that can adapt as fast as the policy landscape shifts.